Underdog trades only the lower model win-probability team. Favorite trades only the higher model win-probability team. Kalshi does not decide the side.

Buy yes requires the selected team to be above 50%. Buy no requires the selected team to be below 50%. Exactly 50% means no trade.

Price difference is the gap between model fair value and Kalshi yes. If the model is higher by the threshold, the bot buys yes. If Kalshi is higher by the threshold, the bot buys no.

Examples: Model 55% vs Kalshi 49c with threshold 6 buys yes. Model 45% vs Kalshi 51c with threshold 6 buys no. Model 50% vs Kalshi 56c with threshold 6 does not trade. Model 51% vs Kalshi 57c with threshold 6 does not trade.

After direction is chosen, buy yes is priced from yes_bid + delta. Buy no uses a derived no_bid = 100 - yes_bid, then prices from no_bid - delta.

Example: with yes bid 39 and delta -2, buy yes is 37 and buy no is 63.

Orders are attempted only in the final 15 minutes before first pitch. The arb worker rescans eligible games every 60 seconds by default.

Kalshi line sync runs every 2 minutes starting 60 minutes before first pitch. The arb worker trades from those synced line rows. Sync means the scheduler pulls current Kalshi quotes and writes the latest buy yes, yes bid, and no bid values into the live-line table, with a 15-second freshness guard.

Prediction snapshots lock during the final 60 minutes before first pitch. Separately, the trader reloads the newest saved matchup pricing row every cycle.

A resolver checks finalized markets every 5 minutes on a 72-hour lookback.

It writes settlement rows into mlb.dashboard_market_settlements and updates mlb.dashboard_game_predictions with status, market result, outcome, and settled time.